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Prediction markets

Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside your crypto book.

If you believe an outcome at 65%, the agent tests what trading that belief would have done, after fees, out-of-sample, on your own Box.

What you get

The same discipline you use for crypto, applied to events.

One agent, two asset classes, one strategy interface

A Kalshi contract is a route next to BTC/USDT: the same strategy code, backtester, optimizer, Arena and paper sessions.

Backtests that know how a market ends

Positions settle at 1 or 0 on the venue's resolution, with the venue's fees charged, and markets that passed their end date unresolved are flagged.

Sized by capped Kelly, never leveraged

No leverage, no funding and no liquidation on prediction routes. A short is simply buying the opposite outcome.

Short-window crypto

Markets that open every few minutes.

Polymarket's 5- and 15-minute Up or Down crypto markets and Kalshi's 15-minute crypto series: the platform rolls to each new window, settles each one, and the agent models the time-averaged settlement the venues use.

The agent says no

A refusal is a feature.

The agent will not recommend a strategy when any of these is true:

  • Fewer than 20 trades
  • The out-of-sample result is too weak
  • The profit only appears when the answer is known
  • The expected value is negative after fees
  • The market cannot actually be traded

Verdicts, side by side

Demo data
Pass

Series-wide test across sibling markets held up on out-of-sample folds.

Refused

Profit appeared only in the through-resolution backtest: the profit was the answer, not the trade.

Demo data. A pass is always shown next to a refusal.

Where you can trade

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket availability depends on your jurisdiction and the venue's terms; your Box offers the Polymarket exchange that matches the residence you declare, and never helps work around a venue's restrictions. Research, backtests and paper sessions work without venue credentials. Live trading is a human decision in the dashboard. Past performance in a backtest does not predict future results. Not legal, tax or investment advice.

Be one of the first to get a Box.

We are opening Quantyx to a small group of beta testers first. Join the waitlist and we will email you when your spot opens.

Join the beta

Trading involves risk of loss. Backtests and paper results do not predict future results. Risk disclosure